Math Doesn’t Lie: Four Reasons to Be Optimistic for Climate Tech in a New Republican Administration

The second Trump term is now here and his climate policies and priorities are starting to take shape. We all expected few sectors to be as impacted as climate tech, but now, after much uncertainty and confusion, we can start to see precisely what changes might happen, and that clarity is vital for charting a path forward—for the next four years and beyond.

This is important because when it comes to climate tech, emotions often dominate the conversation—fear of environmental collapse, frustration with political inertia, or hope for a greener future. But here’s the thing: the numbers tell a clearer story. Climate tech and deep tech innovation aren’t just good for the planet—they’re good for business. And, critically, they’re essential for America’s leadership in the industries that will define the 21st century.

There’s still cause for optimism in a second Trump administration. Yes, you read that right. Whether driven by market forces, long-term trends, or good old-fashioned economics, climate tech is uniquely positioned to weather—and perhaps even thrive—over the next four years.

Here are four reasons why, with specific examples of sectors and technologies that are well situated for what might be coming.

1. Climate tech helps America win the 21st century.

This is about more than sustainability—it’s about securing leadership in energy-intensive industries like AI, chip manufacturing, and Web3. These sectors will define America’s global competitiveness for decades to come. Companies like Google are leading the charge, committing $20 billion to clean energy to power their AI infrastructure. And it’s not just high-tech.

Consider the U.S. steel industry: Nucor, the country’s largest steel producer, is driving low-emission innovation by heavily investing in electric arc furnaces powered by renewable energy. These efforts result in safer workplaces, healthier communities, and long-term competitiveness.

Cement is also a massive category that transcends political boundaries. The global cement industry is on target to reach a $500B in market value within the current decade, and important innovations are happening:  Minus Materials cultivates carbon-negative limestone for cement production using algae, sunlight, and seawater. Chement produces low-temperature cement with sustainable energy, drastically reducing emissions. Sustainable cement innovation is just good business. 

And then there’s nuclear fusion. I’ve been incredibly bullish on this space for a decade, and the pace of innovation is accelerating. Whether through private-sector breakthroughs or government investment, fusion represents a transformational opportunity for any country driving it forward. 

No matter the power source, grid resilience needs are increasingly looking to advanced battery technology. Graphite is one of the key components of Lithium-ion batteries and a lot of that graphite today is imported. But there are incredible innovations happening that can produce graphite through cleaner—and domestic origins—like methane pyrolysis. This research and development is happening in blue AND red states, and the benefit to leading the world on battery innovation is self-evident.Republican administrations often focus on innovation and economic growth and it’s still possible for them to see these advancements not as partisan initiatives but as essential contributions to America’s future competitiveness.

2. There’s a growing, undeniable demand for climate tech from the private sector (way beyond subsidies).

Clean energy is no longer solely reliant on government handouts; it is a viable business in its own right. Take Elon Musk’s own Tesla energy storage division, which is rapidly expanding its deployment of grid-scale batteries like the Megapack. These systems stabilize the energy grid, improve reliability, and lower costs for utilities—benefits that resonate across political lines. Climate tech solutions like these drive economic efficiency and provide a clear ROI for businesses and consumers alike, even without federal handouts.

3. Climate tech (jobs and research) directly improves the economic lives of all Americans.

The new administration’s focus on boosting working Americans aligns with the benefits of climate tech. Renewable energy projects create well-paying jobs nationwide, from installing solar panels to upgrading the electric grid. In fact, clean energy jobs have grown nearly three times faster than the broader U.S. economy over the past five years, spanning everything from advanced manufacturing to skilled trades.

Beyond job creation, climate tech directly lowers energy costs for businesses and households, putting money back into Americans’ pockets. Innovations like heat pumps, solar roofs, and smart home technologies help families save on energy bills while improving quality of life.

Another exciting—and widely distributed—benefit is that many climate technologies require scientific research across red and blue states. Where hubs for AI research might be found in universities and cities popular to computer scientists, things like hydrogen research happen all over. The Biden administration did a lot to support hydrogen, but that work is now starting to really bear fruit—and the results are showing in red states like West Virginia, so a Republican administration ought to be eager to support those new patents, companies, and jobs.

Some administration appointees, like Energy Secretary Chris Wright, are known for a more pragmatic approach and will hopefully recognize that this isn’t a zero-sum game between renewables and fossil fuels. There’s ample room for both, and climate tech offers a growth pathway that benefits all Americans—rural and urban, blue-collar and white-collar alike.

4. Climate tech operates on a timeline that exceeds any single presidential term.

The innovation cycle of climate tech is driven by hard science and long-term trends, not short-term political shifts. Over the past decade, costs for solar, wind, and battery storage have plummeted, while adoption rates have soared. This momentum is fueled by technological advancements, global supply chain efficiencies, and private investment.

Take the Gemini Solar Project in Nevada, a 690 MW solar farm paired with battery storage. Projects like this represent the kind of long-term infrastructure investments that secure America’s energy future. Political headwinds may slow progress temporarily, but the underlying trajectory is set. Markets are responding with optimism, ensuring that innovation continues regardless of who sits in the White House.

Final thoughts on climate tech in the second Trump administration

To be sure, climate tech founders will face challenges—reduced tax incentives, fundraising shifts, and market uncertainty. But headwinds won’t stop this movement. The numbers are clear: clean tech innovation still matters, and the market is pushing forward.

Political headwinds may slow the pace, but they can’t reverse the momentum. Climate tech’s trajectory is already set, and the market is responding with optimism, ensuring that innovation continues no matter who sits in the White House.

I’ve been investing in climate tech for nearly a quarter century. I’ve seen it through administration changes and terrible recessions. It’s stronger now than ever before and that’s because of the sheer passion and ingenuity of the climate tech founder community.

Iconic startups happen at the intersection of opportunity, vision, and dogged determination. Between the opportunities called out above, and the visionary founders still building the next wave of transformative technology I know we’ll continue to see how renewable that entrepreneurial energy is.